Wither The Cavaliers

What I really wanted was solid entertainment. I wanted a series that was competitive, or at least that offered the convincing illusion of being competitive. I wanted a reason to root for the underdog, to actually question the ability of the overwhelming favorites to pull off a win in the NBA Finals.

I haven't gotten it, though. In Game 1, the Spurs won. In Game 2, the Spurs killed. And in Game 3, the Cavs had their hearts ripped out.

It was a close game in the final minutes. While the Spurs had the lead, it really was anyone's game in the fourth quarter. The Cavaliers were successful in keeping the score close and not letting San Antonio run away with the game toward the end. They had a legitimate shot to win. But in the end, they weren't able to pull it off. It was brutal for me to watch, and I'm not even that big of a Cleveland fan. At that point, I was just rooting for them to make the series interesting.

When LeBron James drove to the basket, beautifully, and managed a contorted finger roll that spun along the rim, sank halfway down the basket and then popped back out like a damn jack-in-the-box, that was just a killer. That knocked the wind right out of me. When his three pointer rattled in and then out, it was a shot to the stomach. And when Anderson Goddamn Varejao took a pass from LeBron with mere seconds left in the game and then--instead of immediately dumping the ball back into LeBron's hand and giving him a shot at tying or winning the game for them--decided to have a seizure in the middle of the lane and fling the basketball at the backboard as if he was trying to make a miracle half-court shot . . . well, let's just say that wasn't the happiest moment of the night for me.

At the end of the day, though, while I may have tried to convince myself that Cleveland had an actual (slim, but true) shot at an incredible upset, the reality is that they never really did. As great as James can be--and he's been good, but not truly great in this series--he just doesn't have the supporting cast to take down the Spurs, who are incredibly good. I think that was made apparent when Varejao worked his epileptic magic in Cleveland's third-to-last offensive play. Meanwhile, after Mike Brown finally gave in to the cries of the media and fans and started Daniel Gibson--the hot Cleveland--in place of the hobbled Larry Hughes, Gibson responded with his first bad game in awhile during these playoffs, shooting 1-for-10 on the night.

I mean, what the hell do you do at that point?

To make matters even worse, the Spurs didn't play well in Game 3. They served up a golden opportunity to Cleveland and the Cavaliers were unable to take advantage of it. The gods (or perhaps their own skill?) seemed to be conspiring against them. Hell, even on the final play, at home, with the ball in the hands of the biggest star on the court, the Cavaliers were unable to get a foul called against Bruce Bowen. A foul, in fact, that was intentional. Bowen purposefully fouled James and the refs didn't give a single blow on their whistle. And LeBron shot his three, and he missed, and that was the game.

But understand, even if Bowen had been called for his obvious, intentional foul, it's unlikely it would have been called a continuation, meaning James would have only had two free throws, leaving them still down a point even if he did make them both. Further, even if he did get the call and the continuation, there's certainly no guarantee James would have made all three to tie the game and, likely, send it in to overtime. James and the rest of Cleveland aren't known for their quality free throw shooting.

And so it goes. The simple reality is that the Spurs are a much better basketball team and the Cavaliers have a lot of work to do before they can hang with the best teams in the West. Even with the Spurs having an off night, even with the game in Cleveland, and even in a must-win situation, the Cavaliers simply weren't able to put together a good enough game to beat San Antonio. Now they're down three, and while they still technically have a chance to win this series by sweeping the next four games, they won't. They'll be lucky to avoid a sweep.

Which is too bad.

I mean, all I really wanted was some solid entertainment.

Joel might not know that the San Antonio-based editor of his article has been bored stiff as well.

Lucky Bounce Archives

Posted by Joel Caris at 12:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (1) | Del.icio.us It | Fark It | Digg It

In my preview of the second round, I wrote that LeBron James would manage to power the Cleveland Cavaliers to a win in their series against the New Jersey Nets. I didn't think it was a particularly smart prediction, but I went with it. Then, for the Conference Finals, I went for Cleveland again, for the same reason. I thought James would power them through. Well, both times, it worked out for me. James was not spectacular in every game against the Pistons, but he was good enough to get the Cavs into the Finals. In particular, he was ridiculously good in Game 5, which involved him scoring 29 of Cleveland's final 30 points. And the last 25 points, including every point in the two overtimes. Further, he did it with some amazing shots and plays, and a couple of monster dunks. Think about that for a minute. 29 out of the final 30. That's ridiculous.

Word is, as well, that James is quite focused on winning a championship. That's to be expected. Still, it has to be at least a little worrying to the Spurs.

However, James has in no way been flawless this postseason. While he put together a historic Game 5 against the Pistons, he also had a mediocre Game 6, despite a solid stat line. In that game, it was rookie Daniel Gibson--known, until this point, by about thirty people throughout the world--who stepped it up with 31 points, 19 of which came in the fourth quarter. Therefore, while James going off is going to be crucial to Cleveland's chance in this series, other players are still going to have to have some good nights.

Here's the reality: the Spurs are damn good. Seriously, seriously good. And when it comes right down to it, I have a real hard time seeing them lose this series. Cleveland simply is not anywhere near as good as a team as San Antonio. While James will have his games, don't think Tim Duncan isn't going to be producing impressive games, each and every night out. I'll be surprised to see him have a bad game. He doesn't very often. He does a whole hell of a lot, too, even if it is in a quiet and methodical way.

Yet, I can't shake the feeling that Cleveland might prove surprising. Over at TrueHoop, Henry Abbott took a look at every single possession by James against the Spurs in the two regular season games between the two teams, and he found that the Spurs simply were unable to effectively guard James. In fact, James was able to get to the rim multiple times, despite the fact that normally that's a tough proposition with Duncan clogging the middle. Hell, there was one particular play in which James dunked right over Duncan, which has to leave you wondering what he might do during this series.

I think he goes nuts. I really think he's focused, determined, and feeling good about his game. I think that confidence and that desire for a championship is going to push him to some amazing heights, very possibly allowing him to create another performance along the lines of his Game 5 outing against the Pistons. If that ends up being the case, and James is consistent, and Daniel Gibson continues to play like he did during the last half of the Detroit series, the Cavaliers have a serious shot at stealing this series.

Here's the reality, though, again: the Spurs are damn good. Seriously, seriously good. And at the end of the day, I think this is where my reliance on James stepping it up has to end. Yes, I think he's going to be good, and I think that will produce some great games, which is always a good thing. At the end of the series, though, I think the Spurs are walking away with another championship, and probably in six games.

Look out for James next year, though. You have to think his days of coasting might be coming to an end. After this taste, he's going to want a championship bad next year, and the East is likely still going to be wide open, giving him just that opportunity.

Joel was going to try and spur on his readership by posting a picture of his wang, but he doesn't want to be too cavalier about it.

Lucky Bounce Archives

Posted by Joel Caris at 12:00 AM | Permalink | Del.icio.us It | Fark It | Digg It

I remember hating Michael Jordan.

It was during some of his prime years. I had many reasons for hating him. I didn't like the way he was treated like god by the media, I didn't like the way he seemed to get all the calls, and I didn't like his general attitude. Most importantly, though, was that he was beating the Blazers. My Blazers. Without Jordan, they win the championship in 1992. With Jordan? Not so much.

So yeah, it had a personal element in the sense of his beating the Blazers, but it was also about the hype surrounding him, the domination of the media, and the copious amount of attention. I was sick of hearing about him. I was sick of him being worshiped. I thought it was really as much about him being the league's superstar as it was his standing in the way of the Blazers winning a second championship.

However, then LeBron came into the league. He carried the same sort of hype, the same sort of media attention, and some of the same worshiping, though definitely not to the same degree as Jordan, which is understandable considering he hadn't (and still hasn't) actually accomplished anything truly significant. Yet, I liked him. I was interested in him, wanted to see him play, and didn't mind so much all the attention he was getting. In fact, I wanted to see him live up to that attention, to his supposed potential, and just run over the league with dominating play. I didn't want it to happen against the Blazers, but otherwise I wanted to see it.

And I still do to some degree.

Well, it appears that he finally is considering doing that. After years of solid play that never reached the next level, James came out in game three against the Pistons and, perhaps for the first time, really lived up to the hype he brought into the league with him. He was fantastic, amazing, making impossible shots and impressively filling out the stat line. He had a certain Jordanesque air to him as he seemed to decide that he was not going to let his team lose, period. And indeed, they won.

It was fun to see, if for no other reason that LeBron's seeming lack of interest in maximizing his potential. While he has played very solid in the playoffs, there haven't been very many moments when he's truly taken over. But with game three, that statement no longer applies. He took over, no question about it.

You have to wonder, though, why he hasn't done this before. Is it his youth? Is it his competitive spirit? Is it just the situations he's been in up until now? Perhaps this year he finally sees a light at the end of the playoff tunnel and is finally, truly gunning for a ring.

It's tough to say for sure, though. The Cavs won game four, as well, but James was not as dominant. He did, however, have a huge fourth quarter, with thirteen points. That would bode well, with as much emphasis on when he took over as on how many points he scored once he did.

We're lucky, meanwhile, that James is providing some entertainment value to these Eastern Conference Finals, because they're otherwise not very interesting. Over in the West, the Finals there aren't proving all that interesting, either. Not for me, anyway, and that probably has a lot to do with the way the Suns-Spurs series went down.

Going forward, you have to look at James as the biggest potential story. With the series tied and the Pistons, frankly, not playing all that well, Cleveland has an excellent chance of advancing to the NBA Finals. If that happens, I think the Spurs will then beat them like naughty puppies, but there's always that thought of James taking over in game three. If that LeBron starts showing up for every game, rather than just every once in awhile, then the Cavs have a chance at winning a championship. A piss poor chance, granted, but a chance all the same.

The question is if that James continues to show up.

I'm guessing he won't. But I wouldn't mind being proven wrong.

Joel believes he can fly. Joel believes he can touch the sky.

Lucky Bounce Archives

Posted by Joel Caris at 12:00 AM | Permalink | Del.icio.us It | Fark It | Digg It

Okay, sure, there are conference finals going on, but let's get to the important news first. The NBA draft lottery was held today, to determine the order of selection for the draft on June 28th, and the Portland Trail Blazers, my team, got the first pick. They had a 5.3% chance of getting the pick and they got it.

Holy shit.

Understand, this is a major draft. You've got two players--Greg Oden and Kevin Durant--who both have the potential of being franchise players. LeBron James, Dwayne Wade, Shaquille O'Neal, Michael Jordan. They could end up being those caliber of players. Of course, nothing is ever set in stone and Greg Oden could end up being the next Sam Bowie, but the most likely outcome is that they'll both make a huge impact.

And Portland has its choice between the two.

If I had a bucket filled with numbered ping pong balls right now, I'd be touching them inappropriately.

This is just weird. After years of bad luck, of multitudes of players with questionable character, of stupid ownership and arena issues, of threats to move the team out of town, of having to listen to that insipid "Jail Blazers" moniker, of ridicule and heartbreak, of the heartbreaking loss of close playoff series after close playoff series, suddenly in one year it all starts to come together, in a major way. We had an awesome draft last year, picking up Brandon Roy, LaMarcus Aldridge and Sergio Rodriguez. We booted the crappy management to the curb and promoted Kevin Pritchard, who will probably be an awesome GM, and solved the arena issue. And now the number one pick, after things were already looking up. Next year, we should be in the playoffs and--it will be so very weird--we'll actually get national exposure. Games on national TV, people from outside the state rooting for the team, increased media attention.

So yeah. Weird.

But let's go ahead and get to the actual playoffs action, for the three people who are still reading this after my Blazers lovefest. The conference championships have started and . . . I can hardly bring myself to care. I'm going to be honest here. As soon as the Suns were bounced, I suddenly cared a whole hell of a lot less. Spurs vs. Jazz and Detroit vs. Cleveland just is not getting me hot and bothered. It doesn't help, either, that I've lost much of my love for the Spurs after the bullshit that went down in the series against the Suns. Now, granted, the Spurs were probably going to win that series even without the questionable suspensions of Stoudemire and Diaw, but I just didn't like how everything went down. It felt cheap. And that sucks.

Furthermore, I like the Suns, a lot, and I wanted to see this be their year. Instead, we've got the Spurs again and a Jazz team that, while they've had a great year, I've been unable to get excited about. Ultimately, this looks like a series the Spurs should be able to win without too much trouble, though the Jazz may end up giving them a good run. I'm guessing the Spurs will have this done in six, though. It's not a bold prediction, especially considering I'm making it after the Spurs have already one the first two games.

Detroit vs. Cleveland might be more interesting, but only if LeBron James starts earning all the damn money he's making. Listen, buddy, start taking over these games. You're supposed to be The One, The Guy, The Chosen Dude Who Is The Second Coming Of Michael Jordan. David Stern is supposed to be kissing your ass and thanking you for making the league millions upon millions of dollars all by your lonesome self. I realize you're still young--damn young--but it's not an excuse. You're in your fourth year in the league and this is your second trip to the playoffs. You have the talent and capabilities to take over these games, but you're not doing it. It's annoying me. If anyone could make the rest of these playoffs at least somewhat memorable, you could. But so far, you're choosing not to. You're passing up game winning shots. What the hell is that about? I don't care if there's an open guy in the corner. You're at the rim, you're the superstar, you're the guy making millions and millions of dollar, you're the Chosen One--The One Who David Stern Would Fluff If Necessary. Jesus. Start acting like it.

Now, if the 27 fans who are still watching the playoffs are lucky, James will remember who he is and who he is supposed to be, kick it into high gear, take over the series and vanquish the Pistons. That would give us a slightly interesting Spurs vs. Cavs Finals that I would be willing to check out. As it is, though, we're staring at a very like Spurs vs. Pistons, which is just about enough to make me shoot myself in the face. Only that number one Blazers pick is stopping me.

Anyway, I'm picking the Cavs in six. I'm doing this despite everything I just wrote in the last two paragraphs. Do I know why I'm going against everything I just wrote? No, I don't. I have no idea why I'm picking Cleveland, except I guess because I think maybe James is going to turn it on and take over the series. That's pretty much what I wrote about the Cavs/Nets series and it ended up working out for me, so I might as well ride that train again in the hopes it's going the same direction.

Joel is picking Cleveland cause, well, Cleveland rocks.

Archives

Now, if you'll excuse me, I'm going to resume my day dreaming about Oden in a Blazers uniform. Wake me if the playoffs get interesting again.

Posted by Joel Caris at 12:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (4) | Del.icio.us It | Fark It | Digg It

I've lived most of my life in the Portland, Oregon area, either actually living in the city as I do now or living in Vancouver, Washington, which is essentially a suburb of Portland, right across the Columbia River, at the southern border of Washington. (Feel free to read that as "not in Canada" because it's not in Canada. It's in Washington. Take a minute to absorb that. Thanks.)

Anyway, due to this geographical situation, I've been a Blazers fan for as long as I can remember. They're my team, and they're my only team. I remember the glory days of Clyde Drexler, Terry Porter, James Kersey. I remember the heartbreak of being beaten by Michael Jordan and the Bulls. I remember the epic collapse against the Lakers in the 2000 Western Conference Finals. And then, of course, there's been the rebuilding of the last few years. As such, the Blazers didn't make the playoffs this year.

That's an interesting situation to be in as a fan. I love the Blazers and I love basketball and I love the NBA playoffs. But the Blazers aren't in the playoffs. If they were, I would automatically be rooting for them, but since they're not, I need a new team to root for. And I do need a team to root for because it's no fun watching the games otherwise. If you're not invested in the outcome in some way, the joy just isn't there.

So who to root for when your team isn't there? It's an important and tricky question. Luckily, I have a few back up teams that I like to root for when my preferred team isn't available. Phoenix and Dallas are the two major teams I side with and I like San Antonio, as well. So far, Dallas is out, in a spectacular collapse of a fashion. That leaves a fantastic San Antonio vs. Phoenix second round series. I've liked Phoenix for a few years now and would love to see Nash, Stoudemire, Marion, Bell and the crew win a title. Therefore, I find myself rooting for them.

In a way, it can be exhilarating to root for a new team. You get to leave behind all the baggage, the uncertainty, and the emotional investment of your regular team and take up a new and exciting one, all while having a potential loss effect you less. If the Suns lose their series against the Spurs, I'll be sad, but I won't be devastated. If it was the Blazers, on the other hand, it would be much harder. I still think about that 2000 loss to the Lakers at times.

Thankfully, rooting for the Suns means paying close attention to what is shaping up to be an amazing series. As of this writing, the series is tied 2-2, with the Suns having just pulled off an awesome win on Monday night, closing out the game with a 12-1 lead. It was a little brutal watching the game while rooting for the Suns. Through the second half of the third quarter and through most of the fourth, I kept waiting for the Suns to pull themselves together and make a run to get the score tied or to take the lead. They kept cutting the lead down to seven or eight, then blowing a shot while the Spurs would turn around and score, jacking the lead back up to ten points or more. About ten times, I gave up on the game, which was pretty much giving up on the series. If the Suns went down 3-1 against the Spurs, I didn't see them coming back.

But they pulled it out, waiting until the last couple minutes to finally make the run I had been waiting so long for.

Unfortunately, the final moments of the game brought a nasty hip-check of Steve Nash by Robert Horry that sent Nash flying into the scorer's table. It was a dirty move, no doubt, and it ultimately proved to be beneficial to the Spurs. While the foul very possibly did seal the game for the Suns, it also managed to get Stoudemire and Diaw suspended for game five because they jumped up from the bench after the foul. They moved toward Nash but didn't even come close to joining the fray as Bell got into Horry's face and Nash jumped up to do the same. They weren't going to fight, they just had the understandable reaction of moving toward their teammate after he took a hard, nasty, dirty foul. The league has a hard and fast rule about leaving the bench, though, so the two are suspended for a game.

Horry is suspended for two, but the Spurs still got the better end of this deal, by far. And they got it with a dirty foul.

Nice, huh?

Couple that foul with Bruce Bowen's magical flying limbs, and I have to say I'm souring on the Spurs a bit. Looking at the situation, you really have to wonder why Horry would have committed the foul he did unless he specifically was hoping to injure Nash or maybe get a player or two suspended for coming up off the bench. I think it's likely and that's a shitty way to go about trying to win a playoff series.

Luckily, this series isn't over. Yes, the Suns will have a hell of a time winning game five without Stoudemire or Diaw, but they still could. And if they do lose, I think they go back to San Antonio and take game six. I'm thinking Stoudemire, in particular, will come out with fire in his eyes for that game, and I imagine Nash is going to be right behind him. I still peg this as a seven game series.

And a great one at that, even if it does have its dirty moments.

Second Round Predictions

So I haven't actually had a column up since the second round started, but I did make predictions in the comments of my last Lucky Bounce column. Let's take a quick look at how I'm doing with them.

I called the Suns/Spurs series for the Suns, in seven games, and I said it would be fantastic. So far, so good. This series is damn compelling, for the reasons I wrote above as well as so many others. And I absolutely think this goes seven games and I'm still putting my money on the Suns. Certainly, I can hope.

I said Chicago in six games. I wrote "Write it down." I hope no one did, because the prediction is already dead. If the Bulls are to win this series, they're going to have to do it in seven. They'll also have to do it by coming back from being down 3-0, which is something that doesn't happen too often (and by that, I mean it never has happened.) On the other hand, the Bulls have won the last two games and could tie up the series with a win on Thursday. Honestly, though, I think Detroit will close it out on Thursday. I wish that wasn't the case, but I'd be shocked to see the Bulls come back and win this series.

I called Golden State over Utah in six games. Whoops. Utah won in five. I blew that one.

Finally, I tentatively called Cleveland over the Nets in seven. I wrote, "Considering the way they coasted through the first round, I have no idea why I'm picking Cleveland, but I'm going to do it." Well, I'm glad I did, because it looks good for Cleveland to win this series. They're up 3-1 as of this writing and could have the series won by the time you read this on Thursday. And, frankly, Cleveland has been decent. On the other hand, they also look like they could very well lose in the Eastern Conference Finals, so we'll see how much they can continue to pull it together. Anyway, looking at the series so far, I think I called the winner but I suspect it will take just six games rather than seven.

One Last Hope

God, don't let the finals be Detroit against San Antonio. Please, give me Cleveland and Phoenix. Please.

Pretty please.

Posted by Joel Caris at 12:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (1) | Del.icio.us It | Fark It | Digg It

There was a stretch during the end of game four of the Miami/Chicago series that was beautiful to behold. With about two and a half minutes left, Miami decided to intentionally foul Ben Wallace and put him on the line, rather than try to defend a shot attempt by Chicago. Wallace is a 40% free throw shooter, so it's akin to the old Hack-a-Shaq strategy that has worked to varying degrees for other teams in the past. So after they foul Wallace, he steps up to the line and knocks down both free throws, beautifully.

It was a great moment.

An even better moment came less than a minute later, though, when at something like 2:03 left on the clock, the Heat did it again. This time, though, they had to literally chase Wallace down as he tried to evade his man, fouling him just before another Chicago player made a lay up. Theoretically, it was good strategy, but it was a total bullshit, bitch of a move that left me disgusted. That is, until Wallace stepped to the line and once again made both shots, again beautifully.

And that was pretty much how it went for the Heat. The gods weren't on their side this year--possibly because they're a sad, old, banged up group that thought they could float through the regular season and then turn it on during the playoffs, all while being lead by a selfish, dick of a head coach who decided to take off part of the year when the Heat were playing badly, then magically show back up when things were going better, always eager for the glory but not so eager for the hard times. This same guy who just days ago said he would be coaching the team for the next three years, and then proclaimed himself uncertain as to whether he would be back as coach after the Heat finished up the first round by being swept by the younger, quicker, obviously better Chicago Bulls. Guess that's how it goes.

As you might guess, I'm not a big fan of the Heat. I'm glad to see them gone. Time for new champions!

Over on the Western side of the NBA playoffs, the Suns are sticking it hard to LA, and the dejection of the Lakers and their fan "base" tastes as sweet to me as the tears of Scott Tenorman taste to Eric Cartman. On Sunday, Steve Nash managed to dish out 23--twenty-fucking-three--assists for the Suns, reducing the Lakers to sad also-rans. It was a brilliant performance, one of the most glorious I've ever seen, and came one assist shy of tying the all-time playoffs assist record. Nash also had 17 points on 6 field goals. That means that, out of the 41 field goals made by Phoenix, Nash had a direct hand in 29 of them, or 70.7%. If that's not sheer brilliance, I don't really know what is. Steve Nash is pretty much a god.

Oh, and did I even mention that Amare Stoudamire 27 points and 21 rebounds? Yeah. Nash's performance was so good, he managed to make Stoudamire's amazing stat line an "oh, by the way" aside.

Meanwhile, on Tuesday, the Mavericks and Warriors conducted a spectacular, all-out brawl that ended with a Dallas win. A loss would have sent Dallas out of the playoffs and would have made it the first time an eighth seed beat the first seed since the first round was switched to a seven game series. However, the Warriors have two more chances to win this series, so there's no guarantee that won't still happen.

Dallas was brilliant at the beginning of the first quarter but slowed down as the game went on. The Warriors kept the game close and were able to make a strong run in the fourth quarter, managing to go up by nine before Dallas went on a 15-0 run fueled by Nowitzki's 12 points. However, while he came through big at the end of the game, Nowitzki simply has not been impressive during this series. Baron Davis, on the other hand, has been an absolute monster, fearless and determined, ready to tear apart anyone who gets in his way. Dirk needs to get a little of that mojo going and have a huge game come Thursday night if the Mavericks are going to come back to beat the Warriors.

__________

Okay, so now that we're getting pretty deep into the first round (and should manage to get it wrapped up in another month or so) let's take a look at how my predictions are doing.

First up, Phoenix. If you recall, I expected you all to owe me $20 by this point, but I didn't quite pull it off. I called Kobe going for 62 points in game three and the Lakers winning that game, after having lost the first two to the Suns. I also said that Phoenix would win the next two to finish off the series. You know what? While I may not be getting my $20 (and I really could use it) I still feel pretty damn good about that prediction. Kobe went for 45 in game three, which is nothing to dismiss (though certainly is far from 62) and the Lakers won the game. Not too shabby. They then went on to lose the next game and I'm guessing by the time this article is actually published and you're reading it, the Suns will have won the fifth game to take the series. If that does end up being the case, I should get some damn props for not only calling the winner, and not only calling the length, but also telling you which games would fall which way.

If the Suns don't win Wednesday, on the other hand, then damn.

Elsewhere, I called Spurs in six. They're up 3-1 and there's a good chance they'll end up winning it in five, but I wouldn't be shocked for it to be six. I'm doing good there.

While I called Chicago to win the series, I pegged it at seven games, so I blew that one. I bought into all the media spin about the Heat turning it on for the playoffs and suddenly regaining their form. Bah. At least I didn't buy it enough to actually call the series for the Heat. Fuck the Heat.

Toronto in six? Not happening. Currently, Toronto is down 2-3, and I give the Nets the edge to win the series at this point. I suspect they'll win game six to advance to the second round. Still, I could see Toronto forcing a game seven. We'll see.

I called sweeps for both Cleveland and Detroit and that's exactly what happened. Those weren't hard calls, though, so I can't take too much credit.

I said Houston in seven and I'm feeling damn good about that at the moment. The series is tied at two games apiece and while I was rooting for the Jazz the last couple of games--and wouldn't mind seeing them win the series--I still have to think Houston is going to win it in the end. Either way, though, I smell a seven game series.

Finally, Dallas and Golden State. Man, I'm not doing hot here. I called Dallas in five, which obviously isn't happening. Dallas will be damn lucky to get away in seven. Further compounding my mistake, after the Mavs lost the first game to the Warriors, I wrote that they would bounce back and that they still controlled the series.

Whoops.

Not so much.

Dallas looks flustered, and scared, and scattered. Granted, they seemed in better shape for game five, but they still damn near lost the game right at the end. The Warriors are crazy, talented, fearless, and they were raining threes down upon the Mavs like it was nothing. It was a crazy game. The next one may be even crazier. It's going to be in Oakland, which is not a place you want to play unless you're the Warriors, and the Mavericks are going to be playing for their lives. But then, I suspect the Warriors are going to be doing the same because if this series goes to a seventh game, the Mavericks have to be favored to win it. Golden State needs to close out Dallas on Thursday.

So what's going to happen? I'm not confident saying it, but I'm going to pick Dallas to win game six. I think Dirk is going to come through, I think the team is going to step up, and I think they're just barely going to escape Oakland. And, at that point, I have to give them game seven as well. They'll have home court, momentum, and their confidence back.

While I obviously got the "in five" wrong, I still think Dallas is going to pull out this series.

I think.

Next week, we talk second round--otherwise known as the real playoffs.

Joel needs some damn props, damn it.

Archives

Posted by Joel Caris at 12:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (4) | Del.icio.us It | Fark It | Digg It

I have this personal rule I follow: I don't piss off people who are smarter than me, especially if they're competitive, as well. Apparently, Don Nelson doesn't share this rule, because he undoubtedly pissed off Avery Johnson to a serious degree on Sunday. His Golden State Warriors beat the Dallas Mavericks in the first game of their first round series on Sunday. It was an upset, to be sure, not only because the Mavericks finished the year with the best record in the league and one of the best records of all time, and not only because the Warriors also just barely snuck into the playoffs with the eighth seed, but also because the Mavericks are the official "Faster Than The World 2007 NBA Playoffs only-because-the-Kings-suck team." With FTTW behind them, the Mavericks really have no business losing.

Yet lose they did, and it wasn't the most shocking event we'll see in these playoffs. The Warriors beat the Mavericks every time they met this year and Don Nelson knows a thing or two about the Mavericks in general and soon-to-be-MVP Dirk Nowitzki in particular. To be fair, one of the regular season wins came right at the beginning of the year, when the Mavericks started out poorly before kicking it into gear and dominating the league. To continue to be fair, another one of those three wins came at the end of the year, with Nowitzki, Josh Howard and Jerry Stackhouse sitting out, being rested in preparation for the playoffs. But still, there's something to be said about Nelson's and the Warriors' ability to mess with this team, as evidenced in game one.

However, Johnson helped them along by messing with his starting line up, sitting Erick Dampier, moving Nowitzki to center and putting Devean George in at forward. It didn't work. In fact, it's probably a big part of the reason they lost. Sure, the Warriors did a great job of guarding Nowitzki and throwing him off his game, but Johnson really should have had his regular, big line up in there. If he had, it may have been a very different outcome.

Oh, and can I just pause for a moment to make note of Baron Davis' line from the game? He had 33 points, 14 rebounds and 8 assists. Jesus.

Anyway, everyone is all riled up about the upset, probably much more than they should be. While I'm now feeling a little uncertain about my five game call for this series, I still think the Mavericks are going to win this. As I mentioned at the start of this article, Avery Johnson is almost certainly now very pissed off, and I have a feeling the game on Wednesday (which will be a day-old outcome by the time you read this but is yet to happen as I write this) is going to have a very different outcome than Sunday's game. Seriously, if you've watched Johnson coach, you know he's not a guy you want pissed off at you. He's smart--damn smart--and talented, and this is his team, and he is no doubt going to change the plan, rip apart his players, and come ready to destroy Golden State in game two. And while they may not go down that easy, I'm predicting a win. And not a squeaker, either. The Warriors won a game, and I imagine they'll win another one, but the Mavericks still control this series. Unless, of course, they've lost game two by the time you read this. In that case, all bets are off.

While we're on upsets, how about the Nuggets taking out the Spurs in game one of their series? That wasn't exactly supposed to happen. Of course, the Nuggets have been doing quite well of late, with Anthony and Iverson finally meshing and becoming quite a dominant tag team. While I didn't expect Denver to win the first game, I don't find it particularly shocking that they did, either. But I'm going to stick with my call of the Spurs in six. I think Popovich will adjust, and Tim Duncan might get a bit riled up, and while Denver is going to put up a great fight, the Spurs are going to win. They're a better team, and that's really all there is to it. They'll get a challenge with the Nuggets, but they're not going to fall to them, as intriguing as that would be.

Meanwhile, the Lakers flirted with an upset of their own, but couldn't pull it off. The Suns came out on Sunday looking horrible against the Lakers, doing little more than taking (and missing) jump shots while the Lakers quickly took and held a nice lead, with much help from Kobe Bryant's 28 first half points. Then came the second half, though, and the Suns started to turn it around. They suddenly rediscovered their inside game and Leandro Barbosa decided to become a monster. Bryant only scored 11 points in the second half and the Lakers ended up losing by eight points. I imagine it was a tough loss for them.

It was probably a bit more tough in game two on Tuesday night, when they lost by 28 points. It's not shocking that they had their asses so soundly kicked, considering that they lost by eight in game one, despite the fact that the Suns were absolutely terrible in the first half and still not as good as they normally are in the second. On Tuesday, the real Suns showed back up and reminded the Lakers that while they were rolling into the playoffs with over 60 wins, the Lakers were stumbling into the playoffs, a mess at the end of the season after starting out the year over-performing. Nash had 14 assists, Stoudamire had 20 points and 9 rebounds and Barbosa had another excellent game, with 26 points. Bryant, meanwhile, managed a paltry 15 points.

So what does all this mean? Mainly, it means that the Suns own the Lakers. More importantly, it means that we are now perfectly set up for my game three prediction to come true: Kobe freaks out at the 0-2 hole and goes crazy in an effort to salvage the series, scoring 62 points. This leads to Jack Nicholson either coming all over himself or having a heart attack. Either way, it should be a brilliant mix of hilarious and disgusting. I'm also going to go ahead and say that this is the game the Lakers win. Of course, they'll lose the next two and the Suns will have the series won. Mark my words: this will happen. And then you'll all owe me $20. Every last one of you.

Finally, I want to mention one last thing. The Bulls are up 2-0 on the Heat. They're going to win the series. I'm not even sure it's going to go seven games anymore, though it's certainly still possible if Wade can find the energy to do a repeat of his performance in the Finals last year. I'm kind of doubtful he will, though. Either way, the Bulls are going to win and those many analysts and columnists (not all, by any means, but many) who predicted the Heat would win this series, reverting back to their championship form, are going to be shown to be full of it. And I will laugh and point, because I have no need for the Heat. Screw 'em. I don't hate them the way I hate the Lakers, but I do loathe them just a bit and I'll be glad to see them bounced in the first round. Good riddance.

So those are my thoughts on the first round so far. Luckily, we've got about another three weeks before the first round will be done, thanks to the fact that whoever the hell schedules the first round has been stoned for the last decade or so and thinks there needs to be about a week between each game. It's understandable, though, considering how much less interesting the first round is than the following rounds. They might as well stretch out the boredom and predictability. But don't worry. Come July or so, we should have some awesome second round match ups to watch.

I should be back on Sunday to revel in my brilliant call of game three of the Suns-Lakers series. Come back and celebrate with me, and don't forget to bring the $20 you'll owe me. I need it.

Joel has been sipping the Laker Haterade.

Archives

Posted by Joel Caris at 12:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (3) | Del.icio.us It | Fark It | Digg It

Okay, after my first column's random musings, it's now time to talk actual NBA playoff match ups. The regular season is over and the bracket is set. The games start today. Let's get to it.

San Antonio (3) vs. Denver (6)

This should be a very good series. San Antonio comes in playing awesome basketball since the All-Star break and Denver comes in having finally had Iverson and Anthony gel. They're playing fun, uptempo basketball and have pulled everything together at the end of the season, which is exactly when you want your team to start clicking. I'm expected Iverson and Anthony to both be spectacular during this series.

However, San Antonio is good. Incredibly good. They're so good that I half want to move away from my ultimate pick of Dallas to win it all and hand it to them. They're going to take out Denver, and it probably won't be too hard for them. The best hope is that they play Denver's game more than their game while they're doing it. They'll still win, but it will be a much more fun series to watch.

To really make it a fun series, though, I need better resolution to the Duncan-Crawford spat. This indefinite suspension was far too anti-climactic. Sure, it's appropriate, but I really need a showdown of some kind. I'm thinking game three, halftime, Crawford taking on Duncan. I mean, this is going to garner some serious ratings. But since it's not a fair match, we'll throw in Dick Bavetta on Crawford's side, the two of them against Duncan. And if Bavetta, for whatever reason, should happen to turn against Crawford in a shocking twist and then proceed to team up with Duncan to devour his flesh, well . . . that's NBA basketball, baby. It's the playoffs--you either come to play, or you go home. Or get digested.

Spurs in six.

Miami (4) vs. Chicago (5)

Yeah, yeah, I've heard all about how Miami is going to turn it on in the playoffs like last year. But guess what? Not happening. Sure, they may turn it on, but it's not going to be enough. Chicago is going to take this series, and I'll be a happy man when it happens. It's not that I hate Miami along the lines of how I hate the Lakers, but I'm no great fan. Probably because they took out the Mavericks last year.

But listen, Dwayne Wade isn't going to be able to do what he did last year. Chicago is going to be intent on murdering him and his shoulder, and there's only so much he's going to be able to do in that situation. Sure, he's going to throw himself fully into the game--and possibly lose his left arm in the process--but at the end of the day, I see Chicago walking away from this series. Plus, they have home court advantage, which I think could be key because I'm predicting this goes seven.

In the end, Wade may not be able to pull the Heat through, but he's probably going to put on a hell of a show trying.

Chicago in seven.

Phoenix (2) vs. Los Angeles (7)

Can I just start cackling now? Please? As I may have mentioned in my last column, I hate the Lakers. I hate Kobe Bryant, I hate Phil Jackson, and there's little I enjoy more than watching them fail. And make no mistake, they're going to fail. Hell, this isn't even going to be a redo of last year's series, when the Lakers nearly took out the Suns. No, I think Phoenix is going to take this series easily. Therefore, the key part of this series isn't who is going to win, but just how many points Bryant is going to score. He's been insane lately and I don't see that coming to an end for this series. If anything, the desire to win this series is just going to exasperate his need to score heavily.

So here's my call. I'm saying Kobe has a 62 point game. Futhermore, I'm calling it in game three, after the Lakers go down 0-2. Unfortunately, this scenario presents the very real possibility of having to be subjected to Jack Nicholson having an orgasm on the sideline, which really would be a disturbing event. Let's hope he keeps control of himself.

By the way, if I end up being right about game three, I better get some kind of prize. Outside of the gloating rights.

Phoenix in five.

Toronto (3) vs. New Jersey (6)

I'm just going to admit that I don't know much about these teams or this series. I know Toronto's had a much better year than most anyone predicted and are a feel-good story. I know New Jersey still has Jason Kidd and is looking to move to Brooklyn soon. And I know some people are all hyped up about Vince Carter (now on New Jersey) returning to Toronto to be soundly booed and hated by his old fans. Oh, and Chris Bosh is an excellent player.

Sorry, but my interest in this series isn't getting past about 18%, mostly because of New Jersey's involvement. They're a team I've never had an interest in. As such, I'm calling this for Toronto (and not just because of my lack of interest in New Jersey, but also because they seem to be pretty good.) Once they win the series and move on to face Cleveland, then I'll show some interest.

Toronto in six.

Cleveland (2) vs. Washington (7)

Which brings me to Cleveland. Man, LeBron James must have some seriously good karma. Cleveland, on the last day of the season, managed to land the second seed as opposed to the fifth seed, and as such, they have a pretty sweet path to the Eastern Conference finals. First off, they have to play Washington, which is about as easy as it gets. Gilbert Arenas and Caron Butler--you know, the guys who made Washington a decent team--are both injured and out. Which means that James can act as bored as he did for the first half of the season and the Cavs can still walk away from this series without breaking a sweat.

Sadly, this is not going to be an interesting series. And it had potential. Arenas is utterly crazy, which is always good entertainment, and he said earlier this year that LeBron James didn't have the fire in him. Therefore, this could have been an amazing battle between two top players, one of whom just happens to be completely off his rocker. It's entirely possible that, at some point, Arenas would have become confused and disoriented, discarded the basketball, and started shooting hibachis at the basket while yelling "Basketball!" Better yet, he probably would be making the shots. Instead, we're going to get a boring Cleveland romp. Why did this have to be taken away from me?

Oh well.

Cleveland in four.

Can I just stop here for a moment to ask why the hell are there 16 teams in the playoffs? I've been writing this article for like an hour and I'm only five series in. Seriously, something has to be done about this.

Houston (5) vs. Utah (4)

I can't quite decide on this series. Houston's going to win it, but I'm not sure if it's going to be a huge battle or if they're going to get by the Jazz without too much trouble. On the one hand, Houston is very good, and I don't think anyone should underestimate Tracy McGrady. He kept Houston going very well while Yao was out. With both of them healthy and going at it, Houston's not a team anyone wants to face.

On the other hand, the Jazz have had an excellent season, though they let down some in the latter half. Still, I have to think Jerry Sloan is going to have these guys revved up and ready to go once the series gets under way. He's an incredible coach and not someone who I would want to make the mistake of underestimating.

Getting right down to it, I'm thinking this is going to be a battle. Keep an eye on this series--I'm thinking it goes to seven and that last game is going to be a big one.

Houston in seven.

Detroit (1) vs. Orlando (8)

Oh man. This is going to be a harsh series. Detroit is winning this easily.

Okay, I'm going to be honest again. I know Detroit is very good this year and I know Orlando did some decent things. Otherwise, I haven't followed either team much. As such, there's not much to write about this, except that third sentence up there. Detroit is going to win. And I doubt it will be hard.

Maybe we'll see Rasheed Wallace get a technical for sneezing on the bench.

It's 'Sheed. It could happen.

Detroit in four.

Dallas (1) vs. Golden State (8)

Yep. This is probably the series I'm most excited about. I talked about it in my last column. You have Don Nelson, who seems to have departed Dallas under less-than-great circumstances, facing off against his old team and the coach he groomed. He knows these guys, he knows Dirk, he can very possibly get in their head. Golden State and Dallas played three times this season and Golden State won every game. There are some circumstances surrounding that, but it's still an interesting point.

Plus, Golden State is surging coming into the playoffs. You (or at least I) have to think they're going to give Dallas some issues here in this first round. Certainly, they're not going to win, but I think they'll create a fun and interesting series, which is all one can really ask for. At the end of the day, I think Dallas is coming into these playoffs absolutely ravenous and Golden State's going to be the appetizer. But they're going to be filling and they might even give them some gas. Or something.

I should stay away from the metaphors. At least, when they involve gas.

Anyway, make sure you watch this series. Both teams are fun, there are interesting dynamics going on, and frankly, while I have nothing against Nelson, it'll be fun watching Avery Johnson boot him to the curb. Because I like Avery. And he believes in defense. And I don't want him to have a heart attack, which he perpetually looks on the verge of having.

Dallas in five.

So there are your first round previews. I'll be back on Thursday with talk about the first couple games and where I think the various series are headed. Come back for it, or else I'll have Dick Bavetta hunt you down.

Joel has never met a gas metaphor he didn't like

Posted by Joel Caris at 12:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (10) | Del.icio.us It | Fark It | Digg It

Earth Day is upon us.  May is right around the corner.  Major players are riding the pine, either with an eye towards resting for the playoffs or tanking for the lottery.  Joey Crawford and Tim Duncan are about to get in a fight.  It's raining here in Oregon and I'm dumping Lo-Fi for awhile to write this NBA-centered column.  So what does all that mean?  It means it's time for some NBA playoffs.

Yes, the ridiculously long 82 game NBA season is finally drawing to a close and now we're going to get to the real basketball meat.  The 30-team league has been whittled down to a measly 16 teams, 53% of the league, the very best of the best.  That means that in the NBA, you can get an 'F' and still be considered a top team.  You've got to love that.  I wish my teachers had thought that way back in school.

Since the season is a day from being over as I write this, I'm going to aim to get a second article up on Saturday talking the specific match ups.  But those aren't quite set yet, so I'm going to throw out some random thoughts on the regular season and some general thoughts on the upcoming playoffs.

Let 'Em Fight

If you haven't heard about the Joey Crawford/Tim Duncan scuffle yet, then you're not much of a basketball fan.  Basically, Crawford ejected Duncan for laughing and challenged him to a fight.  Duncan then called Crawford a piece of shit.  God, how great is that?  It's made even more great by the fact that Crawford is suspended, won't be working the playoffs and--according to Marc Stein over at ESPN--is almost certainly done in the NBA for good.  Fucking brilliant, and I write that with total sincerity.

This little dust up has been a fun distraction from the general tanking going on as the teams fight to get Oden and Durant in the lottery and has offered up the very amusing thought of Joey Crawford--a little, bald white guy--fighting Tim Duncan.  Now, I know Duncan is fairly laid back, but I'm still going to put my money on him in that fight.  The Fanhouse differs, though, and offers up an absolutely hilarious break down of this theoretical fight.  I recommend checking it out, for the "Posse Members" comparison at the very least.

Don Nelson Wants Revenge

Okay, so let's go ahead and talk a potential playoff match up.  There's a pretty good chance that the Golden State Warriors are going to be playing the Dallas Mavericks in the first round.  It'll be known one way or another by the time this is published.  Let's just say that things do shake out as such and we have a Warriors-Mavericks series.  That has the potential to be classic.  Don Nelson apparently parted ways with Dallas on less favorable terms than has been portrayed, and there's no doubt that he, above and beyond any other coach in the league, could seriously get into their heads.  Potential supporting evidence resides in the fact that the Warriors swept the season series with the Mavs.  Yes, the Warriors beat the Mavs three times this season, which accounts for about 20% of the Mavericks' losses.  Now, granted, one of those losses happened Tuesday, when Avery Johnson rested Dirk Nowitzki, Josh Howard and Jerry Stackhouse.  So that one doesn't
count.  But the other two do.  I'm not saying the Mavs will lose to the Warriors in the playoffs, but I think it could be a damn interesting series if it does end up happening.

Fuck The Lakers

They're tanking down the stretch and I'm immensely happy about it.  Fuck the Lakers, fuck Kobe Bryant, and fuck Phil Jackson.  I would have loved to see them drop out of the playoffs at the last minute, but they have their spot.  Oh well.  Watching them get trounced by Dallas or Phoenix will be nice, as well.

Thank God For Brandon Roy

Living in Portland, I have the fine distinction of being a Blazers fan.  Which was a great team to love for a long time, until things started to go terribly wrong a few years ago.  Everything really started to fall apart in the 2000 Western Conference Finals, when the Blazers collapsed in the fourth quarter of the seventh game against the Lakers.  (Fuck the Lakers.  Have I mentioned that?)  The team faded from there, then was blown up, then we had some bad management and poor decisions and Jesus fucking Christ it was a long couple years.  But then came last summer's draft and the arrival of Brandon Roy, along with LaMarcus Aldridge and Sergio Rodriguez.  Meanwhile, Darius Miles did all us Blazers fans the favor of sitting out the entire season, Zach Randolph got his act together, and there's new (great) management in town.  Lo and behold, the future's suddenly looking quite bright.

Sure, they still only won 32 games and the final stretch of the season hasn't been brilliant, but we'll have a good draft pick, new GM Kevin Pritchard will hopefully make some smart moves in the off season, and I think it's very possible we could sneak into the playoffs next year.  At the very least, I think we'll be in the hunt late into the season.  And while that's a far cry from being back to competing for a championship, I'll take it.

An Extension?  Seriously?

How fucking stupid was it for James Dolan to give Isiah Thomas an extension while the team was in the middle of the playoff hunt?  Actually, wait, let me back up.  How fucking stupid was it to give Thomas an extension at all?  Sure, he got the team playing a bit better this year, but he's still the idiot who has spent the last couple years burning down the goddamn house.  Maybe he's a decent coach, but what the fuck is Dolan doing keeping
him on as GM?  It's like a battle of the fucking idiots over there.  Since the extension, the Knicks are 3-15 and out of the playoffs.  Nice move, Dolan.  If you're a Knicks fan, you might just want to get it over with and go ahead and hang yourself.

Bonzi Wells

Ha!  Haha!  Ahahahahaha!  There's a reason we got rid of that guy here in Portland.

Can The East Win It All?

Sure.  I think the Pistons or the Bulls could maybe sneak in and win the championship.  But it's not because I think they're any better or even as good as any of the top three teams in the West, but rather that they're going to have a much easier path to the Finals.  The western teams are going to beat the shit out of each other and it's entirely possible they'll go into the Finals exhausted but facing an East team that is not nearly so tired or beat up.  And in the case, there could be a nice upset.

I don't think it will happen, though.  I think the West takes it this year, and I give the edge to the Mavericks.

And with that, I think I'll wrap it up.  As I wrote above, I'll try to sneak another article in on Saturday talking final match ups and giving my predictions, so come back to check that out.  In the meantime, use the comments to let me know if your team made the playoffs, who you expect to win it all, and who you think would win in a fight between Joey Crawford and Tim Duncan.

Joel can whoop the Sacramento Kings on his own, with one hand tied behind his back.

Joel's Bio

Posted by Joel Caris at 12:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (3) | Del.icio.us It | Fark It | Digg It